The August 3rd Border Incident Becomes More and More Curious

I am still puzzled by the presence of an AP News Team on the Israeli side of the Border. As someone who has spent countless days and nights on that border it is, rare that any news team shows up for a tree trimming operation or for anything else until there is either a press conference called or until after the shooting has started (and usually ended).



Video of Events Reuters

The presence of a Reuters news team on the Lebanese side of the border can be explained by the long standing connection between Hezbollah and Reuters. Tip offs, staged events and fake news are commonly coordinated between the two. Read this blog further for evidence of collusion.





In this particular case AP and Reuters just happened to be right on the spot, catching the Israeli Weed Whackers and the spit ‘n polish Lebanese Army in action. Why did the AP guys show up on the Israeli side? To film the lumberjacking before anything happened? This some kind of big story? Who tipped them off, their competitors for the scoop, Reuters? Hezbollah? Hamas? Israel?

Let’s look at the outcome.
Casualties:
Two Israelis down. One dead, one near death.
Both battalion or brigade level reserve officers. Three Lebanese soldiers dead and a Reuters camera man also dead.
Countries have been known to sacrifice soldiers (pawns) on the chess board of war to make a larger plan come together and border incidents have been known to spark wars in the Middle East and elsewhere. Tragic but true.

Responsibility :
The Lebanese Army has taken responsibility for the hit. Lebanon agrees. Israel agrees and fingers Lebanon. The US government also points to Lebanon’s snipers.

Strategic outcome:
Lebanese Army upstages Hezbollah as defender of Southern Lebanon and moves its troops south to supposedly defend against Israel’s expected retaliatory attack.
The Lebanese army would then be in position with the backing of the US, France and UN to pry Hezbollah, which in July began moving its troops, some 20,000 strong, to the south of Lebanon facing Israel, from its strongholds and perhaps push them into the waiting wave of Israeli troops and armor.
Debka File Reported earlier this week that Syrian President Bashar Assad has jilted Hizballah's Hassan Nasrallah and switched his support to the Sunni Prime Minister Saad Hariri in a deal with Saudi King Abdullah. http://www.debka.com/article/8946/
So, Hezbollah’s traditional ally the Syrians, can’t be counted on for support or resupply. Looks like Nassrallah will be on his own.
Notice that this all comes on the heels of The Arab League’s push for the Palestinian Authority to go to direct talks with Netanyahu’s government in Israel. Abbas & Arab League

My sources in the Middle East say that they smell a definite change in the wind. Stable Arab governments, hoping to cash in on the ‘Peace Train’ are now anxious to dump their belligerent, troublesome, defiant and often rebellious Palestinian brothers and their radical Shi’a cousins of all stripes.
Could the Arabs be finally coming to the realization, hoping to avoid further Turkish and Iranian influence in the area and sensing war brewing on the horizon for Iran, that Israel and the West are their meal tickets to a secure and prosperous future?

Middle East analyst, Elias Youssef Bejjani, sums up the situation thus in his post of two weeks ago;
Hopefully, this time Israel backed by the Western and moderate Arab countries will push Hezbollah out of Lebanon as it did in 1982 with the PLO. The region deserves a lasting peace that cannot be achieved while Hezbollah holds the Lebanese people hostage Read complete article

Just as ,’moderate Arabs’ described by then President George W. Bush could be counted on as partners in his campaign to rid Iraq of Saddam Hussein’s regime, could it be possible that more Arab leaders are beginning to see the folly of breeding extremist groups on their home turf?

More evidence? For all the stink over the Israeli assassination of Hamas officer Mahmoud al-Mabhouh notice that the story has happily faded into the convenient ‘cycle of Middle East violence”. Dubai’s financial fortunes have sunk in the past 2 years along with everyone else’s. Wouldn’t they be willing to go along with ‘dumping Hamas’ and the rest of the extremists in order to enjoy a bailout ala Goldman Sachs and GM?
Yes indeed, things are getting “curiouser and couriouser” .
Goodbye Hezbollah?
What to expect.
On the battle field, if the Israelis and the Lebanese hope to crush this force once and for all, the tactic will be to allow Hezbollah to fully engage all fighters in supporting a pyrotechnic gala of tens of thousands of rockets. Israeli civilians will hunker down in their bomb shelters while the Lebanese army surrounds Hezbollah, routs them and forces them to flee southward into the waiting jaws of the Israeli army war machine which began its northward movement within hours of the first salvos to keep the Hezbollah focused on the south with no one left to guard their rear. The battles will completely chew up and exhaust Lebanese forces which leaves the question, “How will the Lebanese government maintain control once the fighting is done? What other forces will be at its disposal. 25,000 US Marines? UN forces? Both?
The Hezbollah is a dangerous organization with world – wide reach. When threatened they can easily begin attacking soft targets across the globe with pre-positioned terror agents. A heightened alert signal will go out and a lot of air traffic will be snarled for weeks. The price of oil will increase slightly and some other material shortages may occur.
The final questions remain, What will Syria do and when? Will Egypt take this opportunity to roll into Gaza and reclaim it? The Russians. What about the Russians?